Appeared in the Saturday Night Live cold open, four days after winning the U.S. Senate race in Texas. newsweek.com ↗
Updates
Candidate news
Up to three of the most covered things potential candidates said or did each day, with a source we read. No more than two from one party in a day. More news doesn't mean more support.
Nov 7, 2026
Nov 6, 2026
Wrote on X that the Washington Post was "fabricating" a report that he was preparing a 2028 run: "I have not reached out to anybody about running for anything." yahoo.com ↗
Nov 5, 2026
Said he had made no final decision on a 2028 run, adding, "I know how to win in tough places like Iowa and Ohio." wkyt.com ↗
Decided to commute the death sentences of 548 people in California; some of the decisions need court approval. calmatters.org ↗
Told The New York Times that staying through Trump's term had "always been my plan" and "I literally will not talk about 2028 anymore." ibtimes.co.uk ↗
Nov 4, 2026
Called for the end of the Iran war after the midterms and said "Texas will be red again." nbcdfw.com ↗
Wrote on X after the midterms: "The reason we lost is the war." aljazeera.com ↗
Changes to this guide
A public log of every change to the field and to candidate summaries. See also placement changes and the weekly roundup. RSS feed
2026-11-08
New: placement changes, open data, embeds and a weekly roundup
Each person now has a page for each issue, with their placement history and where everyone else stands. A new placement changes page lists every time we moved someone on an issue's scale, with the date and source; most changes so far came from finding newer or better sources. All the data can now be downloaded as CSV or JSON, the field and each issue can be embedded on other sites, and a weekly roundup has its own feed. Campaigns can send a public source through the contact form, and we review it under the same rules as everyone else.
2026-11-08
Raphael Warnock joins the field; JB Pritzker moves to watching
Under our rule, Raphael Warnock's nomination market average (3.4%, DeFi Rate's average of Kalshi and Polymarket, observed November 8) is now above JB Pritzker's, whose 3.1% polling average dates from August and whose market price is about 2%. Warnock takes the 10th Democratic spot and Pritzker moves to the people we're watching. We researched Warnock with the same standards as everyone else: all 12 issues are placed from his Senate record, his own statements and established news outlets, mostly from 2025 and 2026. Pritzker's item for November 4 was removed from candidate news because he is no longer in the field. The margin between the two is small, and we will re-check it as prices move.
2026-11-08
Market numbers and candidate news for November 7
We updated nomination market numbers from DeFi Rate's averages of Kalshi and Polymarket (Democrats observed Nov 8, Republicans Nov 7). Among the larger moves, Jon Ossoff went from 27% to 25%, Kamala Harris from 4.9% to 6%, JD Vance from 36% to 35% and Marco Rubio from 21% to 20%. We added James Talarico's Saturday Night Live appearance to candidate news for November 7. We ran the same searches for Democrats, Republicans, and independents and third parties, and found no new declarations or decisions not to run. Raphael Warnock now shows a higher market average than JB Pritzker, so we have asked for a review of the list before anything changes.
2026-11-07
Better sources for the rest of the field
We gave the other 13 people the same source review as the top ten. 70 positions now cite official records, the person's own statements, campaign platforms or established news outlets in place of OnTheIssues or older sources, with a second source where we read one. Three blanks are now filled: Brian Kemp and JB Pritzker on foreign policy, and Rand Paul on AI. Where a newer source clearly fit a different point on our scale, we moved the score: Andy Beshear on climate (2 to 3), Thomas Massie on immigration (2 to 4), and Jill Stein on immigration, crime and guns (2 to 1). We found no public policy positions for John McEntee, so his issues stay blank. Five positions still use OnTheIssues because we found nothing better yet.
2026-11-07
Better sources for the ten highest-ranked people
We replaced 85 sources for the ten people with the highest market or polling numbers: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ron DeSantis, Kamala Harris, Mark Kelly, Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, Pete Buttigieg, Marco Rubio, Josh Shapiro and JD Vance. Positions that relied on OnTheIssues or on statements from before 2023 now cite official records, the person's own statements, or established news outlets, mostly from 2023 to 2026, with a second source where we read one. Several summaries changed to match what the newer source says. Where a newer source clearly fit a different point on our scale, we moved the score: Gavin Newsom on immigration (1 to 2), climate (1 to 2) and taxes (2 to 3); Josh Shapiro on education (4 to 3); Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on immigration (2 to 1) and cost of living (2 to 1); Marco Rubio on abortion (4 to 5); and Ron DeSantis on health care (5 to 4). Every other score stayed the same. The remaining people get the same treatment next.
2026-11-07
Latest moves for DeSantis, Paul and Youngkin
Ron DeSantis wrote on X that a Washington Post report that he was preparing a 2028 run was fabricated, so we updated his status and latest move, and added it to candidate news for November 6. Rand Paul said in a statement that Republicans should offer balanced budgets and end the Iran war and the trade wars. Glenn Youngkin said on CNBC that Democrats should not read the midterms as a mandate. We could not reach the market and polling pages this run, so the market and poll numbers are unchanged.
2026-11-06
New: the 2028 election page
A new page explains how the 2028 presidential election works: 270 of 538 electoral votes to win, a map of electoral votes by state, the early primary calendar, how 2024 was decided and recent results, each with an official source. The home page now says plainly that this guide covers the presidential race.
2026-11-06
Field change: Josh Hawley out, John McEntee in
Under our rule, anyone who has flatly said they won't run comes off the list unless markets price them at 10% or more. Josh Hawley said in September that he has no intention of running and has no market price at that level, so he moves to Also watching. John McEntee is at 3.1% in nomination markets, which places him in the top 10. We found no statement from him about running and no clear public positions yet.
2026-11-06
New: who is in our news picks
The field page now shows a two-week grid of when each person had a latest move logged or was picked for daily candidate news. It counts our own sourced picks, not total news coverage.
2026-11-06
Abortion scores for DeSantis and Kemp
Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp each signed a six-week abortion limit, so we now score both the same way: 5 on our scale, up from 4. Glenn Youngkin stays at 4 because the limit he sought was 15 weeks. We also replaced four mirror links with the publishers' normal addresses.
2026-11-06
New: daily candidate news
The home page and the Updates page now show up to three of the most covered things potential candidates said or did each day, with a source for each and no more than two from one party in a day.
2026-11-06
New: latest moves
Candidate pages and The field now show the most newsworthy thing each person said or did in the last 7 days, from a source we read. We found something for 18 of 23 people so far. Each entry disappears after 7 days. We also updated the status of Marco Rubio and Andy Beshear from their November statements.
2026-11-06
More sources, fewer blanks
We filled blank positions and added second sources for six people with the thinnest records: Glenn Youngkin, Brian Kemp, James Talarico, JB Pritzker, Andrew Yang and Jo Jorgensen. Positions can now list more than one source. Newer evidence changed these scores: Brian Kemp on health care (5 to 4), climate (4 to 3) and trade (4 to 3); James Talarico on guns (3 to 2); JB Pritzker on education (1 to 2); and Andrew Yang on health care (1 to 2), abortion (2 to 1), taxes (3 to 2), education (2 to 3) and guns (2 to 1). Some wording changed too, where a newer or more direct source said something different.
2026-11-06
Status updates and new market numbers
New nomination market averages from Nov 6. No poll average changed. Status updated from pages we read: JD Vance (his October statement that he hasn't made up his mind), Marco Rubio ("no plans at this time"), Ron DeSantis (declined to rule out a bid), Ted Cruz (reported testing the waters) and Josh Hawley (his September statement that he has no intention of running, which we had missed). Ted Cruz's trade position moved from a 2018 source to his November statement on tariffs, from 4 to 2. Glenn Youngkin, Thomas Massie and others moved with the markets. JB Pritzker and Joe Kent were not in the top rows shown, so their last market numbers stay. No major figure has declared.
2026-11-05
How I Vote goes national for 2028
The Illinois 2026 guide is archived. The new guide covers 10 likely Democrats, 10 likely Republicans and 3 independent or third-party figures on 12 issues. We added guns and AI & technology to the issue list.